The cost to rebuild Ukraine following the end of the war, combined with likely high social services costs until Ukraine can financially self-sustain and the need to recapitalize Ukrainian companies, may total between $2 – $3 trillion. Adjusted for inflation, the Marshall Plan totaled $155.95 billion. Some form of reconstruction program like the Marshall Plan, extensively backed by Western nations combined with various financial instruments from IGOs such as IMF, will likely leave Ukraine with a shortfall well exceeding $1 trillion. Ukraine will need to materially increase FDI to rebuild the nation following the war’s end.
International corporations do not approach FDI as a grant. FDI, by nature, is an investment with involved parties expecting a return on their investment. Fortunately, Ukraine has an under-commercialized asset in great demand and is a proven opportunity for material FDI: The workforce.
By 2030, international employers may experience a shortage of skilled workers totaling 85 million people. This skilled talent shortage may cost global employers over $8.5 trillion in revenues because they cannot find the talent they need. (Korn Ferry, 2018)
The risk to global employers stemming from the skilled talent shortage is significant enough that companies are making significant investments in collaborative workforce development programs. Microsoft launched a program in partnership with NASSCOM in India to create 1 million AI workers in 2021 alone. (Microsoft, 2020)
Ukraine has the raw components needed to become a globally recognized destination workforce for the technology industry with widespread involvement from MNCs in developing the workforce further. Ukraine has enormous potential for growth within the technology industry and can generate industry growth, jobs, and industry-related FDI.
Ukraine needs to begin engaging MNCs on various collaborative workforce development programs immediately. Doing so will help hedge the anticipated talent flight following the war, provide Ukraine with STEM workers needed to rebuild the country, seed a thriving technology industry, and generate material FDI.
Doing so will likely transform the country. With MNC involvement, Ukraine can likely grow its ICT industry from $7.11 billion (2021) to over $60 billion.