By 2030, the world may have a shortage of skilled workers exceeding 100 million. Developed economies and entire industries are racing to retain and reskill the same limited pool of workers. The energy industry likely will have a shortage of workers exceeding 7 million people, and efforts to reskill from other industries likely will not be enough. Every industry is competing for the same workforce globally.
The challenge will not naturally resolve. The problem needs a cohesive energy industry response pushing the boundaries of effective human capital development and mobilization at scale.
Demographics, the normal course of economic growth, and Industry 4.0 are pushing the world into the largest skilled talent shortage in history. Korn Ferry predicts a global skilled talent shortage of 85 million people by 2030, costing the global economy $8.5 trillion annually.1 For India to meet likely economic growth targets, it must activate and reskill an additional 34 million people by 2030.2 The EU forecasts the loss of 27 million working-age people by 2050.3
Countries are racing to prioritize high-value jobs at the expense of many critically important occupations. Countries are creating formal programs that compete directly with each other for the same pool of foreign talent.
IBM, World Economic Forum, and others forecast the need to reskill up to 1.4 billion people before the decade’s end.4 The world needs to reskill 280 million people annually from 2025 until the end of the decade to hit the forecasted need- or a population the size of Indonesia every year. The capacity to reskill at this scale does not exist in aggregate globally. Given the multi-trillion-dollar impact on business, every company and industry will compete for capacity in academia, in addition to workers to train
Reskilling from other industries will be a challenge. All potential industries for sourcing near-skilled talent are experiencing the same workforce challenges. Randstad states there are 10 million unfilled manufacturing positions worldwide, and efforts to pull workers from other industries or occupations have been ineffective.5 Agriculture, transportation/supply chain, critical infrastructure, and many other industries compete for the same workforce. While the energy industry attempts to recruit workers from other industries, the same industries target the global energy workforce.
The threat is not limited to traditionally competing industries. The demand for high-value workers in technology and other industries is high. Major companies are operating programs offering digital skills to new workforce segments at scale. Microsoft’s Advanta(I)ge India program will find, train, and help place 2 million AI workers in India in 2024 alone.6 Cisco will train 25 million digital workers through its Cisco Networking Academy from 2022 through 2032.7 Companies outside the energy industry target energy workers at scale.
With every option on the table, how can we solve the problem?
Identify and prioritize human capital development and mobilization initiatives at scale. Consider:
1. The $8.5 Trillion Talent Shortage
2. Tech Worker Demand to Grow with Rise of AI – ServiceNow Blog
3. Commission actions tackle labour and skills shortages in EU
4. HR champions generative I: Embrace experimentation, empower people | IBM
5. Why is there a labor shortage in manufacturing? | Randstad
7. Cisco to Empower 25 Million People with Digital Skills Over the Next 10 Years
